Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Disease, G. B. D. and Injury, Incidence and Prevalence, Collaborators and Vos, T. and Allen, C. and Arora, M. and Barber, R. M. and Brown, A. and Carter, A. and Casey, D. C. and Charlson, F. J. and Chen, A. Z. and Coggeshall, M. and Cornaby, L. and Dandona, L. and Dicker, D. J. and Dilegge, T. and Erskine, H. E. and Ferrari, A. J. and Fitzmaurice, C. and Fleming, T. and Forouzanfar, M. H. and Fullman, N. and Goldberg, E. M. and Graetz, N. and Haagsma, J. A. and Hay, S. I. and Johnson, C. O. and Kassebaum, N. J. and Kawashima, T. and Kemmer, L. and Khalil, I. A. and Kyu, H. H. and Leung, J. and Lim, S. S. and Lopez, A. D. and Marczak, L. and Mokdad, A. H. and Naghavi, M. and Nguyen, G. and Nsoesie, E. and Olsen, H. and Pigott, D. M. and Pinho, C. and Rankin, Z. and Reinig, N. and Sandar, L. and Smith, A. and Stanaway, J. and Steiner, C. and Teeple, S. and Thomas, B. A. and Troeger, C. and Wagner, J. A. and Wang, H. and Wanga, V. and Whiteford, H. A. and Zoeckler, L. and Alexander, L. T. and Anderson, G. M. and Bell, B. and Bienhoff, K. and Biryukov, S. and Blore, J. and Brown, J. and Coates, M. M. and Daoud, F. and Estep, K. and Foreman, K. and Fox, J. and Friedman, J. and Frostad, J. and Godwin, W. W. and Hancock, J. and Huynh, C. and Iannarone, M. and Kim, P. and Kutz, M. and Masiye, F. and Millear, A. and Mirarefin, M. and Mooney, M. D. and Moradi-Lakeh, M. and Mullany, E. and Mumford, J. E. and Ng, M. and Rao, P. and Reitsma, M. B. and Reynolds, A. and Roth, G. A. and Shackelford, K. A. and Sivonda, A. and Sligar, A. and Sorensen, R. J. D. and Sur, P. and Vollset, S. E. and Woodbrook, R. and Zhou, M. and Murray, C. J. L. and Ellenbogen, R. G. and others, (2016) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. The Lancet, 388 (10053). pp. 1545-1602.

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Abstract

Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index SDI) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9·3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17·2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval UI 15·4–19·2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2·39 billion, 2·30–2·50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2·36 billion (2·35–2·37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20–30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase i years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Cited By :1930 Export Date: 16 February 2020 CODEN: LANCA
Uncontrolled Keywords: accommodation disorder acquired immune deficiency syndrome adolescent adult Africa age anemia Article ascariasis Asia automutilation battle injury Bayesian learning cancer epidemiology cancer incidence cardiovascular disease child chronic disease chronic liver disease chronic respiratory tract disease clinical outcome communicable disease comorbidity Democratic Republic Congo demography dental caries diabetes mellitus diarrhea disability drug dependence educational status endocrine disease female funding gastrointestinal disease genital herpes geographic distribution hearing impairment heart failure hematologic disease human immunopathology incidence income infection injury iron deficiency anemia Liberia liver cirrhosis low back pain lower respiratory tract infection major clinical study malaria male malignant neoplastic disease maternal disease mental disease middle aged Middle East migraine neck pain neglected disease neurologic disease newborn newborn disease non communicable disease North African nutritional deficiency nutritional disorder Pacific islands prevalence priority journal refraction error sex social aspect Somalia South and Central America systematic review tension headache tropical disease tuberculosis Uganda upper respiratory tract infection urogenital tract disease Venezuela visual impairment young adult Bayes theorem cost of illness disabled person health quality adjusted life year Disabled Persons Global Health Humans Quality-Adjusted Life Years
Subjects: WC Communicable Diseases
W General medicine- Health professions
Divisions: Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Depositing User: mr lib4 lib4
Date Deposited: 03 Mar 2020 04:59
Last Modified: 03 Mar 2020 04:59
URI: http://eprints.mums.ac.ir/id/eprint/12968

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