Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

James, S. L. and Abate, D. and Abate, K. H. and Abay, S. M. and Abbafati, C. and Abbasi, N. and Abbastabar, H. and Abd-Allah, F. and Abdela, J. and Abdelalim, A. and Abdollahpour, I. and Abdulkader, R. S. and Abebe, Z. and Abera, S. F. and Abil, O. Z. and Abraha, H. N. and Abu-Raddad, L. J. and Abu-Rmeileh, N. M. E. and Accrombessi, M. M. K. and Acharya, D. and Acharya, P. and Ackerman, I. N. and Adamu, A. A. and Adebayo, O. M. and Adekanmbi, V. and Adetokunboh, O. O. and Adib, M. G. and Adsuar, J. C. and Afanvi, K. A. and Afarideh, M. and Afshin, A. and Agarwal, G. and Agesa, K. M. and Aggarwal, R. and Aghayan, S. A. and Agrawal, S. and Ahmadi, A. and Ahmadi, M. and Ahmadieh, H. and Ahmed, M. B. and Aichour, A. N. and Aichour, I. and Aichour, M. T. E. and Akinyemiju, T. and Akseer, N. and Al-Aly, Z. and Al-Eyadhy, A. and Al-Mekhlafi, H. M. and Al-Raddadi, R. M. and Alahdab, F. and Alam, K. and Alam, T. and Alashi, A. and Alavian, S. M. and Alene, K. A. and Alijanzadeh, M. and Alizadeh-Navaei, R. and Aljunid, S. M. and Alkerwi, A. and Alla, F. and Allebeck, P. and Alouani, M. M. L. and Altirkawi, K. and Alvis-Guzman, N. and Amare, A. T. and Aminde, L. N. and Ammar, W. and Amoako, Y. A. and Anber, N. H. and Andrei, C. L. and Androudi, S. and Animut, M. D. and Anjomshoa, M. and Ansha, M. G. and Antonio, C. A. T. and Anwari, P. and Arabloo, J. and Arauz, A. and Aremu, O. and Ariani, F. and Armoon, B. and Ärnlöv, J. and Arora, A. and Artaman, A. and Aryal, K. K. and Asayesh, H. and Asghar, R. J. and Ataro, Z. and Atre, S. R. and Ausloos, M. and Avila-Burgos, L. and Avokpaho, E. F. G. A. and Awasthi, A. and Ayala Quintanilla, B. P. and Ayer, R. and Azzopardi, P. S. and Babazadeh, A. and Badali, H. and Badawi, A. and Bali, A. G. (2018) Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 Diseases and Injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet, 392 (10159). pp. 1789-1858.

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Abstract

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017) includes a comprehensive assessment of incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 354 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Previous GBD studies have shown how the decline of mortality rates from 1990 to 2016 has led to an increase in life expectancy, an ageing global population, and an expansion of the non-fatal burden of disease and injury. These studies have also shown how a substantial portion of the world's population experiences non-fatal health loss with considerable heterogeneity among different causes, locations, ages, and sexes. Ongoing objectives of the GBD study include increasing the level of estimation detail, improving analytical strategies, and increasing the amount of high-quality data. Methods: We estimated incidence and prevalence for 354 diseases and injuries and 3484 sequelae. We used an updated and extensive body of literature studies, survey data, surveillance data, inpatient admission records, outpatient visit records, and health insurance claims, and additionally used results from cause of death models to inform estimates using a total of 68 781 data sources. Newly available clinical data from India, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Nepal, China, Brazil, Norway, and Italy were incorporated, as well as updated claims data from the USA and new claims data from Taiwan (province of China) and Singapore. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between rates of incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death for each condition. YLDs were estimated as the product of a prevalence estimate and a disability weight for health states of each mutually exclusive sequela, adjusted for comorbidity. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary development indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Additionally, we calculated differences between male and female YLDs to identify divergent trends across sexes. GBD 2017 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. Findings: Globally, for females, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and haemoglobinopathies and haemolytic anaemias in both 1990 and 2017. For males, the causes with the greatest age-standardised prevalence were oral disorders, headache disorders, and tuberculosis including latent tuberculosis infection in both 1990 and 2017. In terms of YLDs, low back pain, headache disorders, and dietary iron deficiency were the leading Level 3 causes of YLD counts in 1990, whereas low back pain, headache disorders, and depressive disorders were the leading causes in 2017 for both sexes combined. All-cause age-standardised YLD rates decreased by 3·9 (95 uncertainty interval UI 3·1-4·6) from 1990 to 2017; however, the all-age YLD rate increased by 7·2% (6·0-8·4) while the total sum of global YLDs increased from 562 million (421-723) to 853 million (642-1100). The increases for males and females were similar, with increases in all-age YLD rates of 7·9% (6·6-9·2) for males and 6·5% (5·4-7·7) for females. We found significant differences between males and females in terms of age-standardised prevalence estimates for multiple causes. The causes with the greatest relative differences between sexes in 2017 included substance use disorders (3018 cases 95% UI 2782-3252 per 100 000 in males vs 1400 1279-1524 per 100 000 in females), transport injuries (3322 3082-3583 vs 2336 2154-2535), and self-harm and interpersonal violence (3265 2943-3630 vs 5643 5057-6302). Interpretation: Global all-cause age-standardised YLD rates have improved only slightly over a period spanning nearly three decades. However, the magnitude of the non-fatal disease burden has expanded globally, with increasing numbers of people who have a wide spectrum of conditions. A subset of conditions has remained globally pervasive since 199 , whereas other conditions have displayed more dynamic trends, with different ages, sexes, and geographies across the globe experiencing varying burdens and trends of health loss. This study emphasises how global improvements in premature mortality for select conditions have led to older populations with complex and potentially expensive diseases, yet also highlights global achievements in certain domains of disease and injury. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Cited By :381 Export Date: 16 February 2020 CODEN: LANCA Correspondence Address: Murray, C.J.L.; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of WashingtonUnited States; email: cjlm@uw.edu
Uncontrolled Keywords: Article Brazil cause of death China comorbidity disability disease severity disease surveillance global disease burden headache health insurance health survey hemoglobinopathy hemolytic anemia hospital admission human incidence India Iran iron deficiency Italy Japan Jordan low back pain medical record mortality rate mouth disease Nepal Norway outpatient prevalence priority journal remission sex ratio Singapore tuberculosis adolescent adult age distribution aged child disabled person female global health infant injury life expectancy male middle aged morbidity mortality newborn preschool child socioeconomics statistics and numerical data trends very elderly young adult Aged, 80 and over Child, Preschool Disabled Persons Global Burden of Disease Humans Infant, Newborn Sex Distribution Socioeconomic Factors Wounds and Injuries
Subjects: WA Public Health
W General medicine- Health professions
Divisions: Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
Depositing User: lib2 lib2 lib2
Date Deposited: 12 May 2020 04:17
Last Modified: 12 May 2020 04:17
URI: http://eprints.mums.ac.ir/id/eprint/17349

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