Modeling the seasonal patterns of preterm deliveries: time series study in Mashhad

Mayvaneh, Fatemeh and Reza Entezari, Ali and Khadem, Nayereh and Shojaee, Tayebeh (2015) Modeling the seasonal patterns of preterm deliveries: time series study in Mashhad. The Iranian Journal of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Infertility, 18 (178). pp. 12-20.

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Introduction: Preterm delivery is a complicated situation that its risk factors are different based on different seasons. One of the environmental factors which may be effective on the occurrence of preterm delivery is season. This study was conducted with aim to investigate seasonal pattern of preterm deliveries in Mashhad using ARIMA time series models. Methods:The Preterm delivery related data were collected during 2003 to 2013 from Women's Health Research Center and regarding the autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial autocorrelation function (PACF), and also the absence of trends in data, it was tried to assign goodness of fit to time series models. After selecting the models, the significance of parameters was investigated with the estimation of criterion error and t-values and then, the goodness of fit such as Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Ryan Joyner test were used for validation of the models. In addition, using the seasonal index (SI), the seasonal pattern of prevalence of preterm delivery was extracted. Results: The results of this study indicated that ARMIMA model (1,1,1)×(0,0,1) was fitted as the best one for investigation of seasonal pattern of the prevalence of preterm delivery. In addition, among 4743, the age groups of 23-30 years had the highest rate of preterm delivery. The frequency of seasonal occurrence indicates that winter in December had the highest percentage of occurrence of preterm deliveries, and the lowest rate was related to spring. Conclusion: In general, preterm deliveries vary with seasonal changes, and environmental factors are significantly effective on the occurrence of this disease.

Item Type: Article
Subjects: WP Gynecology
WQ Obstetrics
Divisions: Journals > Iranian J Obstetrics, Gynecology and Infertility
Depositing User: ijogi ijogi
Date Deposited: 21 Sep 2017 14:43
Last Modified: 21 Sep 2017 14:43

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